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V-Lab

Primerica Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

21.57%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

22.19%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Month

23.31%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Primerica Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1788
7.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1356
5.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7392
18.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0969
2.97***
γ2-0.1278
-2.50**
γ30.0172
0.52
γ40.0274
1.42

Persistence:

0.875

Half-life:

5 days