V-Lab
Primerica Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
21.57%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
22.19%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
23.31%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1788 | 7.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1356 | 5.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7392 | 18.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0969 | 2.97*** |
| γ2 | -0.1278 | -2.50** |
| γ3 | 0.0172 | 0.52 |
| γ4 | 0.0274 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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