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V-Lab

Natura Hue Chem Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

42.67%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Week

43.19%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Month

45.21%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Natura Hue Chem Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 40773 trading days (~161.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3996
0.15
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0757
0.07
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9243
0.83
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ18.2857
0.10
γ2-19.5839
-0.18
γ324.2707
0.39
γ4-20.4491
-0.29
γ59.6114
0.19
γ6-3.3200
-0.11
γ71.8592
0.17
γ8-0.8400
-0.33
γ90.1049
0.05

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

40773 days