V-Lab
Natura Hue Chem Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
42.67%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
43.19%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
45.21%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 40773 trading days (~161.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3996 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0757 | 0.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9243 | 0.83 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 8.2857 | 0.10 |
| γ2 | -19.5839 | -0.18 |
| γ3 | 24.2707 | 0.39 |
| γ4 | -20.4491 | -0.29 |
| γ5 | 9.6114 | 0.19 |
| γ6 | -3.3200 | -0.11 |
| γ7 | 1.8592 | 0.17 |
| γ8 | -0.8400 | -0.33 |
| γ9 | 0.1049 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
40773 days
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