V-Lab
Natura Hue Chem Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
42.06%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Week
47.66%
increased by 4.09%
1 Month
61.21%
increased by 17.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 1.31 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6430 | 11.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0981 | 0.43 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5491 | 1.64 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4509 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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