V-Lab
Nordea Bank Abp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.55%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
17.94%
increased by 1.28%
1 Month
19.35%
increased by 2.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8063 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0680 | 28.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 355.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7293 | 6.25*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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