V-Lab
Mep Infrastructure Dev Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.07%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
22.65%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
22.16%
decreased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6965 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2026 | 5.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5553 | 7.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.1311 | 3.45*** |
| γ2 | -1.7396 | -3.46*** |
| γ3 | 1.1653 | 3.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.9586 | -3.19*** |
| γ5 | 0.4406 | 1.27 |
| γ6 | 0.2032 | 0.59 |
| γ7 | -0.8480 | -3.35*** |
| γ8 | 1.0428 | 6.74*** |
Persistence:
0.758
Half-life:
2 days
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