V-Lab
Mep Infrastructure Dev Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
37.66%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
41.40%
increased by 4.05%
1 Month
48.53%
increased by 11.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2162 | 4.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.1817 | 4.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7024 | 14.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0299 | 0.43 |
0.899
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2162 | 4.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1817 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7024 | 14.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0299 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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