V-Lab
Mep Infrastructure Dev Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.15%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
23.35%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
23.86%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1560 | 17.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6206 | 37.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0549 | 5.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0102 | 0.85 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0599 | 4.02*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9398 | 63.44*** |
Persistence:
0.804
Half-life:
3 days
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