V-Lab
Mep Infrastructure Dev Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.78%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
42.31%
increased by 2.22%
1 Month
47.77%
increased by 7.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.5469 | 15.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1460 | 24.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9149 | 137.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8998 | 11.04*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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