V-Lab
Mep Infrastructure Dev Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
38.41%
increased by 0.57%
1 Week
41.13%
increased by 3.29%
1 Month
47.02%
increased by 9.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 4.93 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.4769 | 3.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1457 | 6.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9170 | 35.60*** |
| νDF | 4.9333 | 2.80*** |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.4769 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1457 | 6.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9170 | 35.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9333 | 2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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