Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
440.08%
increased by 1.07%
1 Week
443.52%
increased by 4.51%
1 Month
444.43%
increased by 5.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8832 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0319 | 0.93 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1956 | 0.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -67.1400 | -0.72 |
| γ2 | 100.7550 | 0.77 |
| γ3 | -30.9724 | -0.50 |
| γ4 | 45.4896 | 0.78 |
| γ5 | -147.1529 | -2.03** |
| γ6 | 191.6425 | 2.91*** |
| γ7 | -133.1177 | -3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.227
Half-life:
0 days
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