V-Lab
Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
252.63%
increased by 18.13%
1 Week
241.20%
increased by 6.70%
1 Month
238.47%
increased by 3.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9945 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0411 | 0.93 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1031 | 0.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -33.2215 | -0.77 |
| γ2 | 53.5340 | 0.83 |
| γ3 | 9.8403 | 0.25 |
| γ4 | -79.3773 | -1.96* |
| γ5 | 85.8161 | 2.38** |
| γ6 | -51.4589 | -2.29** |
Persistence:
0.144
Half-life:
0 days
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