Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
678.31%
decreased by 6.84%
1 Week
681.72%
decreased by 3.43%
1 Month
683.34%
decreased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0758 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0229 | 0.80 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4769 | 0.39 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -16.3087 | -1.42 |
| γ2 | 51.4256 | 2.35** |
| γ3 | -70.2328 | -3.08*** |
| γ4 | 84.7440 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.500
Half-life:
1 days
Other Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities