Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
345.24%
decreased by 5.61%
1 Week
322.81%
decreased by 28.04%
1 Month
263.34%
decreased by 87.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1273 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2527 | 14.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7473 | 34.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0581 | 1.44 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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