V-Lab
Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
320.42%
increased by 72.78%
1 Week
308.60%
increased by 60.96%
1 Month
279.76%
increased by 32.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 231.4160 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1461 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9081 | 20.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4696 | 10.29*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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