Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
472.32%
increased by 80.71%
1 Week
473.00%
increased by 81.39%
1 Month
475.48%
increased by 83.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 971.8750 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1828 | 36.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9849 | 353.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4142 | 51.06*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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