Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
313.29%
increased by 24.52%
1 Week
313.38%
increased by 24.61%
1 Month
313.71%
increased by 24.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0810 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 6.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9526 | 75.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9920 | 8.56*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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