Lianhe Sowell International Group Ltd EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
430.05%
increased by 9.51%
1 Week
444.81%
increased by 24.27%
1 Month
512.04%
increased by 91.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 474 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0429 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1311 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9985 | 110.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0233 | -0.94 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
474 days
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