V-Lab
John Hancock FD ALL C C ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.50%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
13.74%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
14.44%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 2, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0246 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0603 | 5.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9545 | 168.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6935 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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