V-Lab
IPO Tech Sofcom GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.06%
increased by 7.05%
1 Week
13.62%
increased by 7.61%
1 Month
14.38%
increased by 8.37%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8691 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5544 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8140 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0763 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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