V-Lab
IPO Tech Sofcom Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
47.20%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
48.81%
increased by 1.84%
1 Month
49.15%
increased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1619 | 1.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0907 | 1.40 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -159.4444 | -2.07** |
| γ2 | 225.7224 | 2.22** |
| γ3 | -117.4438 | -2.49** |
| γ4 | 108.7811 | 2.07** |
| γ5 | -126.5589 | -2.32** |
| γ6 | 140.3163 | 2.23** |
| γ7 | -150.5839 | -2.27** |
| γ8 | 132.1185 | 2.59*** |
| γ9 | -31.2817 | -0.66 |
| γ10 | -47.9518 | -1.51 |
Persistence:
0.091
Half-life:
0 days
Other IPO Tech Sofcom Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities