ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3.62%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
3.70%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
4.04%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, May 22, 2026 at 02:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0013 | 27.45 | |
| 0.1185 | 27.24 | |
| 0.7997 | 202.24 | |
| 0.1637 | 18.20 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1997 to May 15, 2026
Jan 1, 1997 to May 15, 2026
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