ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2.12%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
2.36%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
3.09%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2460 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2360 | 11.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7488 | 39.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2727 | 2.82*** |
| γ2 | -0.5695 | -3.25*** |
| γ3 | 0.5417 | 3.68*** |
| γ4 | -0.3744 | -3.07*** |
| γ5 | 0.1566 | 1.53 |
| γ6 | -0.0109 | -0.13 |
| γ7 | 0.0040 | 0.06 |
| γ8 | -0.0599 | -1.03 |
| γ9 | 0.0517 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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