V-Lab
Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.47%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
15.12%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
15.97%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7019 | 9.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2031 | 10.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2491 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0027 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7641 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.803
Half-life:
3 days
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