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Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.47%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

15.12%

increased by 0.54%

1 Month

15.97%

increased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7019
9.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2031
10.44***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2491
0.04
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0027
0.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7641
0.11

Persistence:

0.803

Half-life:

3 days