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Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.82%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

26.39%

increased by 8.75%

1 Month

48.45%

increased by 30.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2772 trading days (~11.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4895
1.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8539
93.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1458
25.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-70.0063
-0.29
γ274.2406
0.28
γ336.9323
0.69
γ4-346.1625
-6.41***
γ5868.2409
18.73***
γ6-914.8013
-16.38***
γ7418.0245
7.53***
γ8-75.9108
-2.22**
γ912.5761
0.81
γ10-5.1360
-0.71

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2772 days