V-Lab
Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.82%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
26.39%
increased by 8.75%
1 Month
48.45%
increased by 30.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2772 trading days (~11.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4895 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8539 | 93.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1458 | 25.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -70.0063 | -0.29 |
| γ2 | 74.2406 | 0.28 |
| γ3 | 36.9323 | 0.69 |
| γ4 | -346.1625 | -6.41*** |
| γ5 | 868.2409 | 18.73*** |
| γ6 | -914.8013 | -16.38*** |
| γ7 | 418.0245 | 7.53*** |
| γ8 | -75.9108 | -2.22** |
| γ9 | 12.5761 | 0.81 |
| γ10 | -5.1360 | -0.71 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2772 days
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