V-Lab
Etsy Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
52.43%
increased by 1.27%
1 Week
52.67%
increased by 1.51%
1 Month
53.54%
increased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.3210 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 24.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9850 | 226.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2465 | 7.15*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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