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V-Lab

Etsy Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

52.43%

increased by 1.27%

1 Week

52.67%

increased by 1.51%

1 Month

53.54%

increased by 2.38%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Etsy Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.3210
3.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
24.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9850
226.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2465
7.15***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days