V-Lab
Everflow Resources Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
347.65%
increased by 42.94%
1 Week
401.47%
increased by 96.76%
1 Month
794.48%
increased by 489.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0809 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9039 | 37.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0095 | 0.29 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8862 | 0.12 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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