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V-Lab

Everflow Resources Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

249.06%

increased by 33.09%

1 Week

248.81%

increased by 32.84%

1 Month

247.82%

increased by 31.85%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Everflow Resources Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1231
365.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1996
70.24***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days