V-Lab
Everflow Resources Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
249.06%
increased by 33.09%
1 Week
248.81%
increased by 32.84%
1 Month
247.82%
increased by 31.85%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1231 | 365.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1996 | 70.24*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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