Everflow Resources Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
269.43%
1 Week
269.10%
1 Month
267.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2007 to Sep 29, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 448 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 137.0680 | 2.18** |
| αscore | 0.1602 | 10.34*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9985 | 1,190.05*** |
| νDF | 9.2758 | 2.07** |
0.998
Persistence448d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 137.0680 | 2.18** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1602 | 10.34*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9985 | 1,190.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2758 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
448 days
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