V-Lab
Everflow Resources Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
304.56%
1 Week
304.25%
1 Month
303.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2007 to Sep 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | |
| αARCH | 0.1353 | 99.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 524.68*** |
| νDF | 6.0863 | 21.15*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1353 | 99.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 524.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0863 | 21.15*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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