V-Lab
Everflow Resources Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
266,695,322,793,632,830,000.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
346,259,807,658,931,100,000.00%
increased by 79,564,484,865,298,300,000.00%
1 Month
463,867,136,149,997,160,000.00%
increased by 197,171,813,356,364,330,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.4946 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3868 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4926 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -40.0102 | |
| γ2 | -23.6965 | |
| γ3 | 156.4138 | |
| γ4 | 51.4723 | |
| γ5 | -357.3807 | |
| γ6 | -22.3657 | |
| γ7 | 1,051.9670 | |
| γ8 | -1,403.3290 | |
| γ9 | 675.0491 | |
| γ10 | -55.2494 |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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