V-Lab
Smart Powerr Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
646.51%
decreased by 10.78%
1 Week
633.12%
decreased by 24.17%
1 Month
586.21%
decreased by 71.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 402.0643 | 7.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1492 | 97.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9722 | 292.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1540 | 395.17*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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