V-Lab
Smart Powerr Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
266.51%
decreased by 12.72%
1 Week
310.30%
increased by 31.07%
1 Month
345.99%
increased by 66.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0574 | 4.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.2791 | 7.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4323 | 7.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6274 | 5.17*** |
| γ2 | -1.0596 | -6.30*** |
| γ3 | 0.8622 | 7.42*** |
| γ4 | -0.6679 | -5.59*** |
| γ5 | 0.4308 | 3.08*** |
| γ6 | -0.3125 | -1.36 |
| γ7 | 0.0527 | 0.19 |
| γ8 | 0.2147 | 1.02 |
| γ9 | 0.1283 | 0.63 |
0.711
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0574 | 4.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2791 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4323 | 7.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6274 | 5.17*** |
| γ2 | -1.0596 | -6.30*** |
| γ3 | 0.8622 | 7.42*** |
| γ4 | -0.6679 | -5.59*** |
| γ5 | 0.4308 | 3.08*** |
| γ6 | -0.3125 | -1.36 |
| γ7 | 0.0527 | 0.19 |
| γ8 | 0.2147 | 1.02 |
| γ9 | 0.1283 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.711
Half-life:
2 days
Other Smart Powerr Corp Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities