V-Lab
Smart Powerr Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
297.30%
decreased by 2.84%
1 Week
297.07%
decreased by 3.07%
1 Month
296.18%
decreased by 3.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 500 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2203 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0471 | 8.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9516 | 272.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0003 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
500 days
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