V-Lab
Smart Powerr Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
189.91%
increased by 5.46%
1 Week
202.54%
increased by 18.09%
1 Month
214.26%
increased by 29.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 12:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9948 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2775 | 7.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4500 | 7.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6026 | 4.85*** |
| γ2 | -1.0188 | -5.94*** |
| γ3 | 0.8332 | 7.03*** |
| γ4 | -0.6416 | -5.24*** |
| γ5 | 0.4002 | 2.79*** |
| γ6 | -0.2650 | -1.13 |
| γ7 | -0.0503 | -0.18 |
| γ8 | 0.4688 | 2.22** |
| γ9 | -0.5213 | -3.94*** |
Persistence:
0.727
Half-life:
2 days
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