V-Lab
Smart Powerr Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
159.52%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Week
179.69%
increased by 18.35%
1 Month
197.48%
increased by 36.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0795 | 4.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.2761 | 7.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4501 | 7.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6111 | 5.02*** |
| γ2 | -1.0286 | -6.10*** |
| γ3 | 0.8348 | 7.10*** |
| γ4 | -0.6433 | -5.29*** |
| γ5 | 0.4044 | 2.88*** |
| γ6 | -0.2728 | -1.19 |
| γ7 | -0.0403 | -0.15 |
| γ8 | 0.4624 | 2.21** |
| γ9 | -0.5191 | -3.98*** |
0.726
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0795 | 4.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2761 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4501 | 7.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.6111 | 5.02*** |
| γ2 | -1.0286 | -6.10*** |
| γ3 | 0.8348 | 7.10*** |
| γ4 | -0.6433 | -5.29*** |
| γ5 | 0.4044 | 2.88*** |
| γ6 | -0.2728 | -1.19 |
| γ7 | -0.0403 | -0.15 |
| γ8 | 0.4624 | 2.21** |
| γ9 | -0.5191 | -3.98*** |
Persistence:
0.726
Half-life:
2 days
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