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V-Lab

S&P 500 Struct ALT ETF - OCT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

2.08%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

2.13%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

2.30%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Struct ALT ETF - OCT MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8846
131.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1830
27.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0154
0.04
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0153
0.04
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5552
0.05

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days