V-Lab
S&P 500 Struct ALT ETF - OCT MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
2.08%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.13%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.30%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8846 | 131.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1830 | 27.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0154 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0153 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5552 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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