V-Lab
S&P 500 Struct ALT ETF - OCT GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
2.10%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.17%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.41%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 95.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2015 | 9.01*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
336 days
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