V-Lab
S&P 500 Struct ALT ETF - OCT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
1.93%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
1.98%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.13%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0291 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0911 | 10.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9736 | 166.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6892 | 2.46** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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