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V-Lab

S&P 500 Struct ALT ETF - OCT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

1.93%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

1.98%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

2.13%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Struct ALT ETF - OCT GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0291
3.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0911
10.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9736
166.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6892
2.46**

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days