V-Lab
Bitcoin to Euro Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
29.48%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
31.67%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
37.57%
increased by 6.90%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 19, 2010 to Jul 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2115 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1525 | 8.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8048 | 35.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0292 | -0.58 |
| γ2 | 0.1241 | 1.78* |
| γ3 | -0.1376 | -2.80*** |
| γ4 | 0.0208 | 0.44 |
| γ5 | 0.0474 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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