V-Lab
Bitcoin to Euro MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.47%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Week
34.91%
increased by 1.90%
1 Month
40.75%
increased by 7.74%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 19, 2010 to Jul 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1548 | 25.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6129 | 34.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0801 | 7.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2399 | 3.15*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0555 | 3.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9313 | 48.11*** |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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