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V-Lab

Binancecoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

30.08%

decreased by 8.15%

1 Week

40.35%

increased by 2.12%

1 Month

66.59%

increased by 28.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Binancecoin to US Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2018 to Aug 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.6042
2.36**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6371
43.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3584
26.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.7421
-1.22
γ22.8099
1.44
γ3-1.5109
-1.32
γ4-0.3700
-0.38
γ52.0595
1.59
γ6-31.9843
-10.16***
γ791.7203
10.87***
γ8-92.7259
-8.95***
γ932.7569
5.31***
γ10-1.0194
-0.51

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

153 days