V-Lab
Binancecoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
30.08%
decreased by 8.15%
1 Week
40.35%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
66.59%
increased by 28.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2018 to Aug 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.6042 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6371 | 43.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3584 | 26.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.7421 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 2.8099 | 1.44 |
| γ3 | -1.5109 | -1.32 |
| γ4 | -0.3700 | -0.38 |
| γ5 | 2.0595 | 1.59 |
| γ6 | -31.9843 | -10.16*** |
| γ7 | 91.7203 | 10.87*** |
| γ8 | -92.7259 | -8.95*** |
| γ9 | 32.7569 | 5.31*** |
| γ10 | -1.0194 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
153 days
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