Binancecoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
35.27%
increased by 7.53%
1 Week
42.82%
increased by 15.08%
1 Month
63.49%
increased by 35.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2018 to Oct 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4029 | 1.49 |
| αARCH | 0.5470 | 20.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4422 | 40.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.3395 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 2.0099 | 1.07 |
| γ3 | -0.8565 | -0.83 |
| γ4 | -0.7835 | -0.88 |
| γ5 | 2.6989 | 2.22** |
| γ6 | -23.5543 | -11.18*** |
| γ7 | 64.5706 | 12.62*** |
| γ8 | -66.5896 | -9.21*** |
| γ9 | 26.3549 | 4.76*** |
| γ10 | -2.9673 | -1.21 |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4029 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5470 | 20.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4422 | 40.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.3395 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 2.0099 | 1.07 |
| γ3 | -0.8565 | -0.83 |
| γ4 | -0.7835 | -0.88 |
| γ5 | 2.6989 | 2.22** |
| γ6 | -23.5543 | -11.18*** |
| γ7 | 64.5706 | 12.62*** |
| γ8 | -66.5896 | -9.21*** |
| γ9 | 26.3549 | 4.76*** |
| γ10 | -2.9673 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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