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Binancecoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

34.55%

increased by 3.45%

1 Week

36.13%

increased by 5.03%

1 Month

41.71%

increased by 10.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Binancecoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2018 to Oct 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~189 daysv = 3.63 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run65.2085
1.46
αscore0.1089
18.18***
βpersistence0.9963
456.41***
νDF3.6307
11.18***

0.996

Persistence

189d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

65.2085
1.46
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1089
18.18***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9963
456.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6307
11.18***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

189 days