Binancecoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
34.55%
1 Week
36.13%
1 Month
41.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2018 to Oct 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 65.2085 | 1.46 |
| αscore | 0.1089 | 18.18*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9963 | 456.41*** |
| νDF | 3.6307 | 11.18*** |
0.996
Persistence189d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 65.2085 | 1.46 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1089 | 18.18*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 456.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6307 | 11.18*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
189 days
Other Binancecoin to US Dollar Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies