V-Lab
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
32.38%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
33.24%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
35.62%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8636 | 126.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1438 | 20.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.9109 | 2.08** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1030 | 2.48** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5937 | 3.26*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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