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V-Lab

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

32.38%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

33.24%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

35.62%

increased by 2.42%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bitwise Bitcoin ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8636
126.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1438
20.36***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.9109
2.08**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1030
2.48**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5937
3.26***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days