V-Lab
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
38.08%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
39.07%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
41.99%
increased by 3.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.8016 | 7.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 10.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9613 | 165.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.2221 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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