V-Lab
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
36.78%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
38.15%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
42.10%
increased by 4.63%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4348 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 3.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8735 | 65.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0637 | 1.40 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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