V-Lab
Gold BY Gold SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
51.62%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
60.42%
increased by 8.15%
1 Month
70.77%
increased by 18.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 13, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1895 | 12.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4262 | 4.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0264 | -1.08 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.5069 | 0.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3001 | 0.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4172 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.603
Half-life:
1 days
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