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V-Lab

Gold BY Gold SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

51.62%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

60.42%

increased by 8.15%

1 Month

70.77%

increased by 18.50%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold BY Gold SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 13, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1895
12.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4262
4.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0264
-1.08
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

7.5069
0.46
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3001
0.33
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4172
0.28

Persistence:

0.603

Half-life:

1 days