V-Lab
Gold BY Gold SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
56.91%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
62.57%
increased by 5.34%
1 Month
74.26%
increased by 17.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 13, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5381 | 2.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1240 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7905 | 17.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.8968 | 1.55 |
| γ2 | -1.5341 | -1.62 |
| γ3 | 1.2540 | 1.64 |
| γ4 | -1.1275 | -2.15** |
| γ5 | 0.5607 | 0.88 |
| γ6 | -0.3611 | -0.47 |
| γ7 | 1.1176 | 1.57 |
| γ8 | -1.3504 | -1.74* |
| γ9 | 0.5983 | 0.79 |
| γ10 | -0.0165 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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