V-Lab
Gold BY Gold SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
624.17%
decreased by 62.54%
1 Week
631.52%
decreased by 55.19%
1 Month
659.81%
decreased by 26.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 13, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13,158.5509 | 9.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 126.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 5,978.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0009 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
438 days
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