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V-Lab

Gold BY Gold SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

624.17%

decreased by 62.54%

1 Week

631.52%

decreased by 55.19%

1 Month

659.81%

decreased by 26.90%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gold BY Gold SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 13, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13,158.5509
9.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0993
126.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9984
5,978.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0009

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

438 days