V-Lab
Airan Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.76%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
37.10%
increased by 6.88%
1 Month
43.78%
increased by 13.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2622 | 14.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3781 | 18.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0384 | -1.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.6979 | 0.80 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5256 | 0.99 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.621
Half-life:
1 days
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