V-Lab
Airan Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
32.40%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
39.54%
increased by 6.85%
1 Month
45.42%
increased by 12.73%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2630 | 14.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3737 | 17.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0397 | -1.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.3056 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4651 | 0.74 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.617
Half-life:
1 days
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