V-Lab
Airan Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
31.65%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
36.45%
increased by 4.47%
1 Month
39.21%
increased by 7.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1439 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2500 | 4.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3517 | 3.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4688 | -1.28 |
| γ2 | 0.9099 | 1.83* |
| γ3 | -0.9490 | -2.29** |
| γ4 | 1.1189 | 3.04*** |
| γ5 | -1.0826 | -2.82*** |
| γ6 | 0.6483 | 2.14** |
Persistence:
0.602
Half-life:
1 days
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