V-Lab
Airan Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.93%
increased by 0.67%
1 Week
34.60%
increased by 4.34%
1 Month
36.80%
increased by 6.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1561 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2547 | 4.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3544 | 3.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4545 | -1.24 |
| γ2 | 0.8851 | 1.78* |
| γ3 | -0.9324 | -2.24** |
| γ4 | 1.1264 | 3.05*** |
| γ5 | -1.1499 | -3.06*** |
| γ6 | 0.7421 | 2.48** |
Persistence:
0.609
Half-life:
1 days
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