V-Lab
Airan Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
32.47%
decreased by 3.90%
1 Week
36.02%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
38.18%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1762 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.2607 | 4.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3522 | 3.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4211 | -1.16 |
| γ2 | 0.8263 | 1.66* |
| γ3 | -0.8798 | -2.10** |
| γ4 | 1.0806 | 2.91*** |
| γ5 | -1.1332 | -3.13*** |
| γ6 | 0.7481 | 2.65*** |
0.613
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1762 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2607 | 4.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3522 | 3.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4211 | -1.16 |
| γ2 | 0.8263 | 1.66* |
| γ3 | -0.8798 | -2.10** |
| γ4 | 1.0806 | 2.91*** |
| γ5 | -1.1332 | -3.13*** |
| γ6 | 0.7481 | 2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.613
Half-life:
1 days
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