V-Lab
Airan Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
36.44%
decreased by 9.98%
1 Week
37.09%
decreased by 9.33%
1 Month
37.50%
decreased by 8.92%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1659 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.2588 | 4.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3513 | 3.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4391 | -1.20 |
| γ2 | 0.8578 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -0.9086 | -2.17** |
| γ4 | 1.1086 | 2.99*** |
| γ5 | -1.1515 | -3.13*** |
| γ6 | 0.7549 | 2.61*** |
0.610
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1659 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2588 | 4.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3513 | 3.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4391 | -1.20 |
| γ2 | 0.8578 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -0.9086 | -2.17** |
| γ4 | 1.1086 | 2.99*** |
| γ5 | -1.1515 | -3.13*** |
| γ6 | 0.7549 | 2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.610
Half-life:
1 days
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