V-Lab
Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
40.97%
decreased by 8.14%
1 Week
44.55%
decreased by 4.56%
1 Month
50.22%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.5992 | 1.75* |
| αARCH | 0.1781 | 3.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8582 | 10.22*** |
| νDF | 3.3274 | 2.41** |
0.858
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.5992 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1781 | 3.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8582 | 10.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3274 | 2.41** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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