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V-Lab

Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

40.97%

decreased by 8.14%

1 Week

44.55%

decreased by 4.56%

1 Month

50.22%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Airan Limited GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2018 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst11.5992
1.75*
αARCH0.1781
3.56***
βGARCH0.8582
10.22***
νDF3.3274
2.41**

0.858

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.5992
1.75*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1781
3.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8582
10.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3274
2.41**

Persistence:

0.858

Half-life:

5 days