V-Lab
Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
36.16%
increased by 2.20%
1 Week
41.24%
increased by 7.28%
1 Month
49.06%
increased by 15.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.7160 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1754 | 14.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8629 | 40.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2845 | 9.77*** |
Persistence:
0.863
Half-life:
5 days
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