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V-Lab

Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

36.16%

increased by 2.20%

1 Week

41.24%

increased by 7.28%

1 Month

49.06%

increased by 15.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Airan Limited GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.7160
6.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1754
14.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8629
40.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2845
9.77***

Persistence:

0.863

Half-life:

5 days