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V-Lab

Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

57.34%

decreased by 15.99%

1 Week

56.58%

decreased by 16.75%

1 Month

55.23%

decreased by 18.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Airan Limited GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst11.6532
1.73*
αARCH0.1775
3.54***
βGARCH0.8584
10.09***
νDF3.3030
2.42**

0.858

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.6532
1.73*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1775
3.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8584
10.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3030
2.42**

Persistence:

0.858

Half-life:

5 days