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V-Lab

Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

31.81%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Week

39.08%

increased by 6.10%

1 Month

48.51%

increased by 15.53%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Airan Limited GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2018 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.5184
7.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1792
13.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8402
37.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3208
9.24***

Persistence:

0.840

Half-life:

4 days