V-Lab
Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
57.34%
decreased by 15.99%
1 Week
56.58%
decreased by 16.75%
1 Month
55.23%
decreased by 18.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.6532 | 1.73* |
| αARCH | 0.1775 | 3.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8584 | 10.09*** |
| νDF | 3.3030 | 2.42** |
0.858
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.6532 | 1.73* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1775 | 3.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8584 | 10.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3030 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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