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V-Lab

Airan Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

41.86%

increased by 7.78%

1 Week

45.65%

increased by 11.57%

1 Month

50.84%

increased by 16.76%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Airan Limited GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2018 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.29 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run11.7207
2.73***
αscore0.2370
4.05***
βpersistence0.8276
12.19***
νDF4.2859
1.98**

0.828

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

11.7207
2.73***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.2370
4.05***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8276
12.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2859
1.98**

Persistence:

0.828

Half-life:

4 days