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V-Lab
V-Lab

AEX-Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

11.21%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

11.50%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

12.49%

increased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9242
6.17***
αARCH0.1066
11.69***
βGARCH0.8766
88.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.43

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9242
6.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1066
11.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8766
88.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.43

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days