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V-Lab

XTB S A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

60.68%

decreased by 2.78%

1 Week

60.41%

decreased by 3.05%

1 Month

60.18%

decreased by 3.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of XTB S A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1570
3.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0536
1.95*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6346
2.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.1949
2.18**
γ2-0.2645
-2.61***

Persistence:

0.688

Half-life:

2 days