V-Lab
XTB S A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
63.10%
decreased by 2.84%
1 Week
62.46%
decreased by 3.48%
1 Month
61.83%
decreased by 4.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1406 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 1.85* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6706 | 3.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.1938 | 2.22** |
| γ2 | -0.2647 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.720
Half-life:
2 days
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