V-Lab
XTB S A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
60.68%
decreased by 2.78%
1 Week
60.41%
decreased by 3.05%
1 Month
60.18%
decreased by 3.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1570 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0536 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6346 | 2.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.1949 | 2.18** |
| γ2 | -0.2645 | -2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.688
Half-life:
2 days
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