Skip to main content
V-Lab

XTB S A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

80.02%

decreased by 4.60%

1 Week

79.32%

decreased by 5.30%

1 Month

76.77%

decreased by 7.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of XTB S A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.3201
2.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0504
15.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9828
163.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2673
8.63***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days