V-Lab
XTB S A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
85.19%
decreased by 4.52%
1 Week
84.51%
decreased by 5.20%
1 Month
82.01%
decreased by 7.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.9081 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0495 | 18.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9855 | 219.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2868 | 10.42*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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