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V-Lab

XTB S A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

85.19%

decreased by 4.52%

1 Week

84.51%

decreased by 5.20%

1 Month

82.01%

decreased by 7.70%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of XTB S A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.9081
3.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0495
18.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9855
219.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2868
10.42***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days