XTB S A Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
64.27%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
65.65%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
65.94%
increased by 2.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 4, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4048 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0827 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.5418 | 3.26*** |
| γ2 | -0.6768 | -2.91*** |
| γ3 | 0.2684 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.083
Half-life:
0 days
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