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V-Lab

XTB S A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

56.46%

decreased by 3.43%

1 Week

54.67%

decreased by 5.22%

1 Month

51.48%

decreased by 8.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of XTB S A GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4156
6.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0793
4.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7872
32.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0292
-1.02

Persistence:

0.852

Half-life:

4 days