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V-Lab

XTB S A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

55.72%

decreased by 4.17%

1 Week

53.58%

decreased by 6.31%

1 Month

50.43%

decreased by 9.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of XTB S A GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 4, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7705
7.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0803
3.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7409
28.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0211
-0.64

Persistence:

0.811

Half-life:

3 days